Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Letting Sleeping Dogs Lie

The political fortunes of the GOP turn a sharp turn for the worse yesterday. Bristol Palin's pregnancy and all the punditry and side stories that have come out with it are dominating the air to the exclusion of everything else. There's polls out now that show Obama with an 8 or 9 point lead, something we haven't seen in a while. We can pooh-pooh this if we want but I think we're seeing significant changes in the race right before our eyes.

I misread the impact of this largely because to me the Palin family looks closer to something out of Norman Rockwell than something out of Jerry Springer. But then I read Steve Sailer's take on this and I think he is exactly right. The Republicans have kicked the sleeping dog and now we'll just have to see who he bites. There is a significant danger because not only is there a fear of redneck female fertility there is actually a means to do something about it. Ie, vote for Sen Obama and erase Gov Palin's family from the national stage.

Notwithstanding any of that, Gov Palin was still the right pick and the McCain candidacy is miles better off now than before he chose Palin.

1. The oil narrative is looking very good for the Republicans now if they know how to argue it.

2. The overall dynamic of the race has changed in several good ways. First of all, the GOP has finally moved beyond Bush, and everybody likes it. At this point, the race is a referendum on McCain instead of a referendum on Obama. There's been times in the past few days where I wondering if the Democrats were running a candidate in this race. They'll have to swim upstream against the media of course, but the fact that the Republicans have interesting things to say is going to make all the difference.

3. People who don't want their families to end up on the Jerry Springer show will figure out that the haterade about Gov Palin and her family is really aimed at them. The GOP hopes they figure it out sooner rather than later.

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