Mickey Kaus is an eccentric liberal, one of the few who will pursue an honest argument with the left. Recently he has been hitting the immigration issue pretty hard, but in the linked post he really exposes the Democrats Achilles' heel. I find him persuasive. A couple of quick points:
1. As I wrote a little bit ago, the GOP is lost its favor among the body politic. As far as I'm concerned, it already had by 2004. The only reason why the President won reelection is because the Democrats in general and John Kerry in particular were not trusted on security issues. As soon as the Democrats can hold their current coalition but at the same time get rid of their owned-by-interest-group mentality and their nasty partisanship, they'll win.
2. The Republicans have not had an ideological revolution since the 1970s. We are all Reagan's children, as it were. But if the GOP base cannot assert control of their Congressional majorities, or the President, we are due for one soon.